Constituency: Carlisle (including Belah, Belle Vue, Botcherby, Burgh, Castle, Currock, Dalston, Denton Holme, Harraby, Morton, St Aidans, Stanwix Urban, Upperby, Wetheral and Yewdale)

Population: 85,979

Electorate: 66,332

Breakdown: More than one in 10 of the population is a process, plant and machine operative, the 13th highest proportion of all constituencies in England and Wales, according to ONS 2011 Census figures.
At 17.1 per cent, Carlisle has the second highest proportion of part-time employees.

Key industries/employers: Employment is largely focused on manufacturing - Pirelli has a factory here - and food manufacturing, with Nestle and Carr's Milling.
Recent years have seen an increase in logistics, service and creative industries. Tourism is also important, with much historical interest attached to the city's Roman heritage, notably Hadrian's Wall.

Issues likely to be key to voters' decision: The terms of Brexit, infrastructure.

Sitting candidate: John Stevenson (Conservative).
A local solicitor, Aberdeen-born Stevenson, 53, is a former chairman of the Carlisle Constituency Association and a city councillor from 1999 until his election as MP in 2010.

Other candidates: Ruth Alcroft (Lab); Fiona Mills (UKIP); Peter Thornton (Lib Dem)

2015 figures:
Con (18,873, 44.3%), Lab (16,099, 37.8%), UKIP (5,277, 12.4%), Green (1,125, 2.6%), Lib Dem (1,087, 2.6%), Ind (126, 0.3%). Turnout 64.7%

Labour target seat: No 25 (3.26% swing required)

Previous holders of the seat for the last four general elections:
2001: Eric Martlew (Lab), majority 5,702
2005: Eric Martlew (Lab), majority 5,695
2010: John Stevenson (Con), majority 853
2015: John Stevenson (Con), majority 2,774

How constituency voted in Brexit referendum:

  • Leave: 35,895
  • Remain: 23,788

Analysis:
A rock-solid Labour seat since 1959 and one which had comfortably returned Eric Martlew in every election since 1987, Carlisle fell to the Conservatives in 2010 when Martlew stepped down from the fray and local solicitor John Stevenson presided over a surprising 7.7 per cent swing.
His slender 853 majority was widely expected to be overturned in 2015 but voters confounded the polls when Stevenson not only survived a concerted door-to-door campaign by Labour’s Lee Sherriff and the added threat of UKIP but increased his majority by almost 2,000.
Labour currently holds the majority of seats on the city council and it remains to be seen whether their prospective candidate will choose to distance themselves from the national Corbyn campaign and fight instead on local issues.
The city voted overwhelmingly to Leave in the Brexit referendum and the Lib Dems will hope their pro-European stance will improve their dismal showing in 2015 when they polled less than UKIP and the Greens.
However, Carlisle is traditionally a two-horse race – and following the watershed Conservative gain in neighbouring Copeland earlier this year, allied with UKIP’s existential crisis following Brexit, Stevenson will be confident of consolidating his position in June.